Taiwan chip production

What if we were to incentivize, i.e. bribe, Taiwan to move its semiconductor business to someplace relatively safe?  Or move part of it?  Hawaii, Thailand, Australia, or the Philippines?  At some point they may want to expand their capacity, so why not expand it to another country?  Become more of an international company.   It might seem reasonable if we provide the right incentives.  

Better than fighting a war. 

Meanwhile we could work on increasing our capacity, or invest in some allied country that makes chips. 

Best wishes,

John Coffey

On Oct 26, 2022, at 4:21 PM, Larry wrote:

"If China would invade Taiwan, that would be the biggest impact we've seen to the global economy — possibly ever," Glenn O'Donnell, the vice president and research director at Forrester, told Insider. "This could be bigger than 1929."

While TSMC may not be a household name, you almost certainly own something that's powered by its chips.

TSMC is in the foundry business, meaning it doesn't design its chips but instead produces them at fabrication plants for other companies. The company accounts for over half of the global semiconductor market, and when it comes to advanced processors that number is, by some estimates, as high as 90%. In fact, even the best chip from China's top semiconductor manufacturer, SMIC, has been said to be about five years behind TSMC's.

TSMC counts Apple as its biggest customer, supplying the California tech giant with the chips that power iPhones. In fact, most of the world's roughly 1.4 billion smartphone processors are produced by TSMC, as are about 60% of the chips used by automakers, according to The Wall Street Journal.

TSMC semiconductors are also used in high-performance computing: They can quickly process reams of data and guide missiles, making the company highly valuable in the eyes of government entities.

According to a 2021 report from the Semiconductor Industry Association, in 1990 the US produced 37% of the world's chip supply. These days, the US is responsible for only 12% of global chip production.

While the consequences of an invasion could be significant, many experts say it's just a matter of time before it happens, whether it's by 2030, 2025, or even by the end of next year. On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken predicted China would take steps to annex Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" than previously thought, signaling that it could be sooner rather than later. The US government is already playing out war-game scenarios to prepare for this, and in the event of a full invasion it would reportedly consider evacuating the skilled chipmaker engineers on which it's become so reliant.

The spotlight has focused increasingly on Taiwan and the semiconductor industry as a whole in recent weeks following the export regulations the US government slapped on China. Those regulations limit sales of semiconductors made using US technology and are meant to curb China's ability to develop advanced technology.

How TSMC and US-China Tensions May Dictate Fate of Global Economy (businessinsider.com)