2025-04-04

Trump's Tariff Motives

I expressed the opinion that Trump is motivated by a desire to win over voters, particularly among working-class people who traditionally vote Democrat. Although he is not running for re-election, his party still needs to win elections.
However, I had another thought. Trump also wants to push his vision of how he believes the world should work. This seems likely.

In some cases, such as cutting waste, fraud, and abuse, his vision for the country is beneficial. However, his stance on tariffs is not. Implementing such a massive change using powers the President should not have is authoritarian. While his intentions may be good, restricting free trade ultimately harms our freedoms.

The free market has already determined the most efficient way to manufacture and distribute goods. When governments interfere with incentives and regulations, they disrupt an already efficient system.

Trump claims that trade deficits mean we are financing other countries, effectively giving them a free ride. In reality, the opposite is true. Some countries send us more goods than we send them, and they use their excess dollars to finance our national debt.

Trump's tariffs amount to a $600 billion tax on the American people, yet he insists they will make us richer. In truth, the tariffs will disproportionately affect low-income individuals.   Reportedly, every job saved through protectionism can cost consumers hundreds of thousands of dollars up to a million dollars.  

Yesterday, I heard that Congress is considering reasserting control over tariffs to counter Trump's policies.

The ideal outcome would be for all countries to eliminate tariffs, allowing for truly free trade. However, I make an exception for nations that pose a potential threat or engage in human rights abuses. In such cases, tariffs can serve as a strategic bargaining tool.

Historical US Unemployment

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/166664/economics/historical-us-unemployment/

According to Google, the current unemployment rate is 4.1%.


I remember unemployment being a big issue in the 1970s.  The trend since then seems to be slowly downward.  However, this says nothing about the quality of jobs.

The bottom line is that I don't see a strong reason for protectionism.

Reportedly, every job saved through protectionism can cost consumers hundreds of thousands of dollars up to a million dollars.  

I remember one economist, I'm not sure who, talking about the fallacy of wanting full employment.  He said that for the government to guarantee people jobs is more costly than just supporting them through welfare programs.  I don't know if this is true, and it might be better to have people working.

2025-04-03

What The Hell Happened on LIBERATION DAY?!

I'm sorry, but Trump's tariffs are insane, and it is based on multiple illogical premises.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU6WqiYNOK0

When governments interfere with the free market, creating perverse incentives, which governments everywhere routinely do, it makes the market less efficient.

2025-03-30

16-Year-Old Girl Wakes Up Every Day Thinking It’s June 11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKQV0u2-7OA

I have heard of a condition called anterograde amnesia, where people can't retain new memories.

Why you should sign up for a My Social Security Account Now

Why You Should Sign Up for a My Social Security Account Now.

On April 1st, the government will increase its requirements for proving your identity for any changes to Social Security. In some cases, you may have to go to your local Social Security office.

They claim that this is not a problem if you have a My Social Security account. I believe it is best to create the account now so you won't have to worry about it later. With a My Social Security account, you can access your Social Security benefits online. Signing up took me about 25 minutes.


Part of this process involves creating an account with login.gov. They asked me to set up two-factor authentication, which was no problem. The catch is that they also recommend downloading an authentication app on my phone as an additional way to verify my identity. I tried this, but I had no idea how the app works, so I skipped this step.

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Why American English is Highly Misunderstood

2025-03-27

Social Security requirements changing April 1

Starting April 1, all new Social Security applicants, as well as current beneficiaries wanting to make changes to their accounts, will be required to verify their identity either online with the "my Social Security" service or visit an office in person. In the past, changes could be handled over the telephone.

What to Know about Proving Your Identity | SSA

Does everyone need to prove their identity with Social Security?

No. There is no need to contact Social Security to prove identity if not applying for cash benefits and if not changing direct deposit information. People will continue to receive their benefits and on schedule to the bank account information in Social Security's records without needing to prove identity.

A secure – and most convenient – way to prove identity is with Social Security's online services using a personal my Social Security account.

Individuals will need to provide in-person identification for certain internet, phone, and paper claims, including claims filed by third parties.

Is sea level the same all across the ocean?

2025-03-23

How I Think About Climate Change



@john2001plus
0 seconds ago
Neil,

It is possible that climate alarmists are correct and that human CO₂ emissions will lead to disastrous climate change unless we take drastic action. However, I have about a hundred reasons to believe they are not. We will find out in time because we are currently running the experiment. While some changes are occurring, they do not seem significant enough to warrant panic. I believe we have far more time to address this issue than alarmists suggest, as these changes are happening very slowly.

Looking at temperature data, it took approximately 140 years for the average atmospheric temperature to rise by just 1°C—starting from 1880, which was an exceptionally cold decade.

One major reason for resistance to drastic climate policies is that human civilization depends on cheap, reliable energy to thrive. The proposed solutions are often expensive, unreliable, and require draconian government controls. I do not want the government to control the entire energy sector unless there is an overwhelmingly strong existential reason to do so.

I have followed this issue for 37 years and have seen many dire predictions fail to materialize. Around 35 years ago, some claimed that we would face catastrophe within 25 years. Yet, our supposed doom always seems to be 25 years away—much like nuclear fusion. 🙂

As I mentioned earlier, the rate of change is slow, but another key factor is climate sensitivity to CO₂ doubling. Just 15 years ago, some climate scientists estimated climate sensitivity to be between 6 and 12°C. However, these predictions have gradually been revised downward. Around 2010, experts warned that we were on track for a 3°C increase by 2100 and that this would be dangerous, though a 2°C rise would be manageable. Less than a decade later, I saw similar claims, but the numbers had shifted: now a 2°C increase was the catastrophe, and 1.5°C was the new "manageable" threshold. The goalposts keep moving.

We have nearly doubled atmospheric CO₂ since pre-industrial levels—though not quite yet. However, we have not observed a 6–12°C increase. After analyzing temperature and CO₂ data from 1880, I did some calculations and estimated a climate sensitivity of around 2°C.

A 2015 graph comparing climate model predictions with actual temperature changes showed that nearly all models ran too hot. Only the Russian model was close to reality.

We now live in a political climate where truth is often defined by narrative rather than data. It is a post-truth society. There have been numerous reports of scientists struggling to secure funding or publication unless they align with the official narrative.

The IPCC is not an unbiased organization. They have refused to hire anyone who does not already subscribe to the belief in catastrophic man-made warming. This is not how science should be conducted—starting with a conclusion and working backward. Given that the IPCC is funded by governments, it should remain neutral and let data guide its conclusions. Instead, it behaves more like a political entity. The IPCC has also attempted to prevent skeptical papers from being published and has hired individuals affiliated with environmental lobbying groups—an obvious conflict of interest.

Some scientists have resigned from the IPCC, citing excessive bias. One former member stated that the real goal of the organization was to dismantle free-market capitalism.

Antonio Guterres, the socialist from Portugal who has led the UN since 2017, routinely makes exaggerated claims about climate change—such as his statement that oceans are "starting to boil."

Unfortunately, I do not trust the political system or academia to provide an honest assessment. I wish I could, but too many individuals and institutions appear to be pushing their agendas.

Best wishes,

John Coffey

2025-03-22

Has Neil deGrasse Tyson Ever Been Wrong?

The Path to AGI is Coming Into View


@john2001plus
0 seconds ago
It seems like the wrong approach. LLMs excel at language but are not well-suited for other tasks. The top chess programs, for example, are exponentially stronger than the best human players. A general-purpose AI would likely need to be a collection of specialized tools, each designed for a specific task. By developing enough of these tools, you could create a highly intelligent system.

2025-03-21

2025-03-16

High school runner hit in head with baton during race


This story has gone viral.  There is debate about whether it was intentional or not.  It doesn't affect my life, but it might be a reflection of society.


2025-03-15

Neil deGrasse Tyson & Charles Liu Make Predictions About the Future

Tornado Warning in Columbus Indiana Last Night

I was woken up in the middle of the night by a city-wide tornado siren. I was tired and didn't hear any severe weather other than distant thunder. Thinking it wasn't necessary to get out of bed, I checked my phone for alerts. There was a tornado warning for Columbus, but the tornado didn't seem to be nearby.

The siren stopped after about three minutes but started again. When it stopped for the second time, I was able to go back to sleep.

I can't find much in the news about it, but I'd like to know where the tornado was.  A couple of years ago there was a tornado in the western part of the county that created a severe wind that knocked down trees all over the city.

https://www.localnewsdigital.com/2025/03/15/136944/

Today it is threatening to storm outside.

Michael Mann Lawsuit Against Mark Steyn

Michael Mann is a climate scientist and a prominent figure in climate activism. He created the controversial "Hockey Stick" graph, which has been widely criticized for its methodology and accuracy.

Journalist and public speaker Mark Steyn referred to Mann as "a fraud."  Mann, who has a history of suing critics, filed a lawsuit against Steyn.  After a decade of litigation, Mann won a million-dollar judgment.  However, an appeals court has largely overturned the ruling for misrepresentation by Mann and his lawyer.

https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=986s

The next part of the video discusses the alleged fraud in government funding of climate activism.

https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=1673s

2025-03-11

The Stupidity Epidemic: Why Critical Thinking is Dying


This is well-stated and completely on point.

It appeals to my biases. 🙂

Stock Market PLUNGES…So What’s Next?!

This echoes my previous post.

Anti-Trump Mems from Facebook

The anti-Trump memes are strong on Facebook.  It would be easy to dismiss this as deluded people but…


There is a real movement here.  Donald Trump has a slim majority that could be chipped away by people screaming loud enough. 


He has to deliver results. If the country goes into a recession, it could tip to the left, repudiating Libertarian ideas. They would claim that it obviously failed. 




















































2025-03-07

Democrats Play the Race Card

This is a critical moment. By singing "We Shall Overcome" in the House of Representatives, the Democrats are attempting to frame Republicans as racists.  They have already claimed that telling Al Green to stop yelling during the State of the Union Address was an act of racism, equating it to telling Black Americans to sit at the back of the bus in Montgomery, Alabama, during the 1960s.  Now, they argue that the censure of Al Green is a form of racial oppression.

This was their plan all along.

Not only is this insulting to Republicans and their supporters, but it also does nothing to foster intelligent discourse.

I don't expect the Democrats to stop. This is their only strategy. They have no hope of winning unless they regain the minority vote. For the next four years, they will continue labeling Republicans as racists until they achieve victory.

Gene Hackman died of heart disease, about one week after wife died of hantavirus: investigators

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/gene-hackman-betsy-arakawa-deaths-investigators-provide-update

2025-03-05

BREAKING: Supreme Court rules Trump must resume foreign aid

Sign My Petition To Pardon Derek Chauvin


The death of George Floyd had many contributing factors, including a possibly fatal level of drugs in his system, a COVID-19 infection, heart disease, and poor health from a life of drug abuse.

A conviction of unintentional manslaughter might make sense. The murder conviction is most definitely unjust.

The trial turned into a media circus along with mass protests threatening and committing violence.

Some would argue that the police should have cared for Goerge Floyd, but they called for an ambulance, which took too long to arrive.

There is no evidence that Derek Chauvin intended to hurt George Floyd. He was just trying to do his job. It is possible that he did his job badly and contributed to the death of George Floyd, but even that is not clear.

Barron "Octavian" Trump